Even though the overall population trend shows outflows continuing to exceed inflows, net migration is getting closer to neutral in 2022, with a total for all 5 boroughs at less than -15,000.
These individuals were most likely to move to other major metropolitan cities such as Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and DC. A third moved to different boroughs in New York City and another 7% moved to the surrounding suburbs of New Jersey.
Notably, the amount of people returning from these cities over the past year was approximately equal to the percentage of those who left during COVID, with the exception of Miami. (Only half of Miami movers returned to New York City.) This segment of the market likely consists of young and middle-aged working-class professionals who are highly mobile and prefer an urban lifestyle. Data from the real estate market supports this trend, with an analysis from UrbanDigs Analytics finding steep increases in luxury contracts at the end of 2021, and strong buyer interest. The timing coincides with New York City’s reopening in September 2021 as public schools returned to in-person learning, city government called office workers back, and Broadway curtains rose after an 18-month hiatus.
In summary, New York City is seeing a return to normal—or at least, a “new” normal. The pandemic has forever altered social and family structures. It’s changed employers’ views on telework, prompting many companies to adopt a hybrid model or allow for long-term remote work. With several top-tier banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan walking back their return-to-office plans, it could be several more months before migration flows turn positive again. The population shifts that resulted from the pandemic are sure to have ripple effects for years to come. To stay up-to-date on the latest migration trends, find more information on i360’s population data.